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FEATURED IN:
UWB Insider, October 29, 2003
by: Kurt Scherf,
Vice President of Research For a solution that can provide such
precise location services, it’s ironic that properly positioning the
ultrawideband (UWB) market has resulted in some rather vague, and perhaps overly
optimistic, forecasts.
Granted, forecasting in the technology space is always difficult. The best we
can offer are educated guesses based on factors such as consumer demand,
industry development, history and (sometimes) logic. Furthermore, positioning
UWB on the “market spectrum” (i.e., identifying key platforms and applications
for which UWB is likely to be used) is extremely difficult given its
characteristics and the industry support behind it. As the figure following
indicates, UWB is a potential market fit across a broad spectrum of products and
applications.
 The challenges
inherent in forecasting a networking solution as broadly positioned as UWB must
be readily acknowledged. Simultaneously, however, we would caution against the
over-hype that has been associated with previous “revolutionary” technologies.
The clearest example of this rose-colored forecasting is Bluetooth. UWB insiders
are quite outspoken in their contention that this networking solution cannot
experience the “over-hype/under-deliver” syndrome that has become synonymous
with Bluetooth’s history. Therefore, forecasts built on pragmatic deployment
scenarios are critical in meshing UWB’s reality to its much-touted prospects.
Although pragmatic, we are by no means pessimistic about UWB’s future as a
short-range cable replacement technology. That said, the real UWB deployment is
not likely until the 802.15.3a standardization process has been finalized. At
presstime, the IEEE Task Group had yet to ratify the Multiband OFDM proposal.
The delay in standards development is likely to keep major players, primarily in
the consumer electronics (CE) space, from deploying the solution as quickly as
previously thought. We do believe, however, that the PC space, which benefits
most from the early rollout of UWB connectivity, will continue to drive the
early development. Therefore, market deployment should shift from the PC to the
consumer electronics markets, using the following rationale. In the peripheral
interconnect market, UWB provides PC players with an optimized solution that
finally will replace cable connections. Developments such as the new PCI Express
interconnection for desktops and servers will mean that PC and peripheral
manufacturers will seek networking solutions that provide for robust
connectivity between PCs and peripherals such as printers, scanners, external
memory and drives.
For digital imaging and mobile CE, once PC manufacturers have adopted UWB as
a short-range cable replacement solution, makers of digital cameras, camcorders
and mobile CE devices such as MP3 players will follow suit. Anticipate strong
appeal of cable-free and very high-speed connections between the PC and such
devices.
As for fixed CE, which includes platforms such as digital and HDTV receivers,
A/V receivers, speakers, home theater projectors and set-top boxes, this will be
the last to experience high penetration of UWB for several reasons. Because the
early target for “network-capable” consumer electronics platforms is high-end
and custom-installed solutions, expect some early skepticism about using
wireless solutions for connectivity between nodes. It will take time to convince
manufacturers and custom installers that wireless connections provide the same
reliability and quality as wired solutions.
Furthermore, anticipate that IEEE 1394 (aka FireWire) connections will become
more commonplace in coming years as manufacturers may tend to lean toward this
solution first and wireless second. The set-top box market may provide a clear
indication of FireWire’s growth opportunity. The recent agreement between the
cable industry and the Consumer Electronics Association could lead to a vast
increase in FireWire products. Finally, there is the growing trend for
point-to-point delivery of audio and video content using WiFi and other existing
wireless solutions. Granted, Wi-Fi itself is not optimized to support
high-quality HDTV streams, but advances in compression and transrating
techniques for video among silicon vendors means that PC-to-CE point-to-point
networks for video distribution are becoming more common. Look for a growing
number of manufacturers to adopt WiFi as perhaps an intermediate solution for
their point-to-point networks. UWB implementation will come later.
Kurt Scherf is
vice president of research for Dallas-based Parks Associates, where he studies
developments in home networks, residential gateways, digital entertainment,
technology development in the housing market as well as residential and building
management and controls. His most recent work includes
Personal Area
Connectivity Solutions: The Next Generation, an overview and analysis of
the ultrawideband market. He can be reached at
scherf@parksassociates.com.
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