Publish Date: Oct 04
Purchase Report Online

The home controls industry is poised to cross a 30-year-old chasm separating success in high-end new homes from much bigger opportunities in mainstream retrofit markets. This report examines market drivers, new developments, and remaining challenges while providing forecasts, company profiles, and descriptions of enabling standards.

“Traditional applications and market segments are blending together because of digital convergence and disruptive technologies,” said Tricia Parks, president of Parks Associates. “Given that this convergence is essential to mass-market success, this latest edition of the Home Controls report emphasizes the market conditions enabling a convergence of home controls and computing in addition to forecasting for traditional high-end controllers in categories such as central control, high-end lighting, and energy management.”

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2.0 Overview of the Home Controls Market
   2.1 Definitions
   2.2 A Brief History
      2.2.1 Early X-10 (a De Facto Standard)
      2.2.2 Introduction of Advanced Standards
   2.3 Discovering Automation All Around the Home
   2.4 Integrating Automated Controls into Whole-house Systems
   2.5 Segmentation by Levels of Sophistication and Integration
      2.5.1 Basic Home Control (The Mass Market)
      2.5.2 Integrated Home Control (Builder Installed)
      2.5.3 Whole-house Control Systems (Custom Installed)
      2.5.4 When Professional Installation is Necessary
   2.6 Segmentation Lines Begin to Blur

3.0 Exploiting the Market Drivers
   3.1 Embedded Technologies and the Pervasive Internet
      3.1.1 Glut of Capacity at Ends Fuels Investment in Middle
      3.1.2 The Impact of Moore’s Law
      3.1.3 The Effect of Metcalfe’s Law
      3.1.4 Sensors & Actuators
      3.1.5 Remote Access with Smart Phones / PDAs / Pagers
   3.2 Digital Convergence
      3.2.1 It’s Just Bits
      3.2.2 Cheap
      3.2.3 Consistent Quality
      3.2.4 Easy to Store
      3.2.5 Easy to Share
      3.2.6 Easy to Combine
   3.3 Broadband Internet Access
      3.3.1 Internet Sharing is the Top App for Home Networks: What Next?
      3.3.2 Benefits of Always-On Networks
      3.3.3 Competition for Broadband Includes Service Bundles
   3.4 Major Players Investing in Standards
      3.4.1 PC Companies Drive Home Networking Standards
      3.4.2 CE Companies Drive Entertainment Standards
      3.4.3 Semiconductor Companies Develop Networking Technologies
      3.4.4 Appliance Manufacturers Start to Embrace Standards
      3.4.5 The Distribution Channel Starts Offering Services
      3.4.6 Industry Invests in Academic & Internal Research Labs
         Georgia Tech Aware Home
         MIT “Home of the Future” Consortiums
         Project Oxygen
         Changing Places/House_n
         IBM Pervasive Computing Lab
         Philips HomeLab

4.0 Addressing the Challenges for Home Controls
   4.1 Crossing the Chasm
   4.2 Addressing Consumer Needs
      4.2.1 Accommodating Legacy Devices and Networks That Still Work
      4.2.2 Completing the Value Chain
      4.2.3 Identifying Business Strategies along the Value Chain
   4.3 Determining Price and Delivering Value
      4.3.1 Proving the Value of Structured Wiring
      4.3.2 Converged Devices vs. Device Proliferation
      4.3.3 Addressing Complexity & Confusion
      4.3.4 Understanding the Homeowner

5.0 Home Control System Applications
   5.1 Why the Home Controls Conundrum?
   5.2 Developing a Middle-Class Market: Requirements and Challenges
   5.3 Lighting Controls – Advanced and Basic
      5.3.1 Lighting Technologies
      5.3.2 High-end, Custom-installed Lighting Systems
      5.3.3 Low-end, Do-It-Yourself Lighting Solutions
   5.4 HVAC & Climate Control
      5.4.1 Programmable Thermostats
      5.4.2 Communicating Thermostats
      5.4.3 Zoned HVAC
      5.4.4 HVAC Technologies
   5.5 Entertainment Networks & Controls
      5.5.1 An Entertainment Market Too Big to Ignore
      5.5.2 The Effect of High-Definition Television
         Device Integration with Multiroom Access
      5.5.3 New Business Models
      5.5.4 Digital Rights Management
      5.5.5 The Elusive and Evolving “Universal” Remote
      5.5.6 Low-Cost Macros and Scenes
      5.5.7 The Future of Remotes
      5.5.8 Software Flexibility
      5.5.9 Hum Me a Few Bars
      5.5.10 Networked PCs with Entertainment Content
         Home Computer and Digital Photography
      5.5.11 Home Computer for Music
         Home Computers for Video and Television
      5.5.12 Media Center PCs
      5.5.13 Networked CE Devices
         Built-in Networking to Access PC Content
         Multiroom PVR (cable, satellite, DSL)
         Integrated Multimedia Servers
         Portable Media
   5.6 Integration with Security & Safety
      5.6.1 Surveillance & Remote Access
      5.6.2 Medical Monitoring and Home Health Care

6.0 The Enabling Standards & Technologies
   6.1 Introduction: A Brief History of Standards
   6.2 How Standards are Created – a Tutorial
      6.2.1 Standards Developing Organizations (SDOs)
      6.2.2 Industry Consortia
      6.2.3 De Facto Industry Standards
      6.2.4 The Pros and Cons of Approaches to Standardization
   6.3 Obsolete Standards
      6.3.1 CEBus, CAL, HomePnP, and SCP
      6.3.2 HomeRF
   6.4 Wireless Standards
      6.4.1 Bluetooth
      6.4.2 Infrared (IrDA)
      6.4.3 Wi-Fi® (IEEE 802.11a/b/g)
      6.4.4 Wi-Max (IEEE 802.16)
      6.4.5 Ultra-Wideband (IEEE 802.15.3a)
      6.4.6 ZigBee
         IEEE 802.15.4
      6.4.7 Z-Wave
   6.5 Powerline Standards
      6.5.1 HomePlug
      6.5.2 LonWorks™
      6.5.3 X10
   6.6 Phoneline & Coax Standards
      6.6.1 HomePNA
      6.6.2 MoCA
   6.7 Structured Wiring
      6.7.1 Ethernet (IEEE 802.3)
      6.7.2 HAVi and IEEE 1394
   6.8 Device & Network Management Standards
      6.8.1 OSGi
         What OSGi Has Done
      6.8.2 UPnP™ Technology
   6.9 Internet Protocol Standards
      6.9.1 TCP/IP – Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol
      6.9.2 UDP – User Datagram Protocol
      6.9.3 HTML – Hypertext Markup Language
      6.9.4 HTTP – Hypertext Transfer Protocol
      6.9.5 XML – Extensible Markup Language
      6.9.6 SSL – Secure Sockets Layer
      6.9.7 The Connection between Internet Protocols and Home Controls

7.0 Home Systems Control Unit Forecasts
   7.1 Basic Versus Advanced Controllers
   7.2 Market Forecast Considerations
   7.3 Methodology
      7.3.1 Advanced Controller Methodology
      7.3.2 Basic Controller Methodology
   7.4 Data Sources
   7.5 Home Systems Forecasts: Energy Management
      7.5.1 Intelligent Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning Controllers
      7.5.2 Programmable Thermostats
   7.6 Entertainment Controllers
      7.6.1 Advanced Entertainment Controllers
      7.6.2 Universal Remote Controls
   7.7 Lighting Control
      7.7.1 Intelligent Lighting Controllers
      7.7.2 Basic Lighting and Appliance Control
   7.8 Advanced Central Home Controllers
   7.9 Security Systems
      7.9.1 Intelligent Security System Controllers

Section 2.0
The ECHO IV
Home Networking Technology Timeline
Automation Islands in the Home
A Range of Sophistication in Home Control Capabilities
Controls Segmentation, by Vertical Applications
Home Control Market Segments

Section 3.0
More Computing Performance at Less Cost
Percentage of U.S. Households Using Consumer Electronics
Growth of Broadband and Data Networks
Most Valued Home Networking Applications
Appeal of Home Monitoring Solutions: Broadband Households
Value-Added Home Management Services
Industry Association Membership
Representative PC & PC Networking Companies
Penetration of Data Networks
Representative CE Companies
Total Annual Sales/Installations: CE “Hubs”
Representative Semiconductor Companies
Representative Appliance Companies
Representative Appliance Companies

Section 4.0
The Consumer & Cultural Lag
The Chasm between Home Controls Early Niche and the Mass Market
Value Chain
Getting the Right Mix
Potential Business Strategies
U.S. Households with Wi-Fi Networks
Structured Wiring Installations as a Percentage of New Housing Starts
Preferred Option for Buying a Media Center PC

Section 5.0
Penetration of Selected Home Systems
Basic Appliance and Lighting Controller Market Size and Forecast
Volumes vs. Category Breadth
Services Paid for by Internet HHs
How Consumers Use Home Controls
At Least Monthly Use of the Internet
Preferences for Remote Control Platform for Control across the Internet
Basic Control & Advanced Control
Total Broadband Households 2004
U.S. Flat Panel Digital TV Sales
Universal Remotes in Internet Households
Between Which Devices Do Consumers Desire to Share Photos
Sources of Digital Music
In Which Activities are Broadband Households Participating at least Weekly?
Appeal of and Likelihood of Purchasing: Digital Music Adapters for PC-to-Stereo Connectivity
PC-Connected Entertainment Nodes
Penetration of Security Systems in U.S. Households
Perceived Value of E-Enabled Applications among U.S. Internet HHs
Generation Gaps and Age Distribution
U.S. Population Grows Older with Aging Baby Boomers

Section 6.0
Standards and Technologies that Impact Home Controls
Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Standards Approaches
Home Networking Technology Timeline
Wireless Positioning
Characteristics of Ultra-wideband (IEEE 802.15.3a)
Features of UWB
What is Structured Wiring?
Top Reasons Why Home Buyers Want Structured Wiring
Why Structured Wiring Will Spur Growth in Home Controls

Section 7.0
Intelligent Controller Unit Forecast
Advanced Controller End User Market Value Forecast
Basic Lighting and Appliance Controllers – Penetration and Unit Sales
Advanced Controller Forecasts
Advanced Controllers in New Housing Starts by 2005
Advanced Controllers in Established Housing by 2005
Typical Basic Controller Configuration
Basic Controller Forecast Methodology
Data Sources
INHVAC Installed Units and Annual Sales
Programmable Thermostat Sales and Installation Information
Programmable Thermostat Market Value and Average Pricing
U.S. Sales of Programmable Thermostats
Installed and Annual Sales of Advanced Entertainment Controllers
Households with Universal Remote Controllers
Market Value and Unit Sales for Cross-Category Remotes
Unit Sales of Universal Remote Controllers
ILC Annual Sales and Total Cumulative Installations
Forecasts for Basic Lighting and Appliance Controllers
Market Value of Advanced Central Controllers
Total Installed and Monitored Security Systems in U.S. Homes
Intelligent Security System Controller Forecast

© October 2004 Parks Associates
Dallas, Texas 75230

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, 
in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Printed in the United States of America.

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